Perfect Storm Slowing Down

This week, we had some potentially good news from Washington D.C.  Sen. Murray and Rep. Ryan announced a budget deal that hopefully would delay, or at least minimize, the impact of federal sequestration on schools across the nation. Federal sequestration is one part of the perfect storm that’s brewing for Kentucky education that I have been describing in recent blogs.

Sequestration would impact Kentucky schools through a $58 million cut to programs like Title I, Title II, IDEA and others. These programs serve our most at-risk children. The cuts would lead directly to the loss of teachers and teaching support positions -- more than 1,300 positions in Kentucky could be cut.

So far, there is at least a possibility that we might avoid this. The House of Representatives voted 332-94 to send the budget deal (H.J. Res. 59) to the Senate for consideration. Once Congress passes the budget resolution, as is expected, there are still several steps that have to happen. The budget moves to the House and Senate appropriations committees where there will be substantial discussion about how to divvy up the funds among federal agencies and programs and how much each should receive. Bottom line – there are many potential pitfalls ahead before the federal budget deal results in an actual allocation of funds to school districts.

The other two parts of the perfect storm – the Kentucky School Boards Insurance Trust (KSBIT) fund settlement and the state budget continue to develop. During our superintendent’s monthly webinar today (December 13), Commissioner of Insurance Sharon Clark provided the latest progress on the school boards insurance trust.

If everything remains on track, it appears we are moving toward resolution of two components of the perfect storm – KSBIT and federal sequestration.

Our remaining challenge is the state budget. Many news articles across the Commonwealth are quoting legislators concerning state revenues and spending plans for the next two years. Most of the news is not positive for advocates of education funding. I hope readers will pay close attention to the local and state discussions. If you need additional information about the state budget and the loss of education funding since 2008, as well as the growing inequity of our state education budget for local districts, please check out this presentation that I made to Kentucky Association of School Superintendents on December 8.

A Perfect Storm is Brewing

In 1990, the Kentucky General Assembly took bold action to reform P-12 education. Through passage of the Kentucky Education Reform Act (KERA), the General Assembly agreed to invest in education and to implement numerous policies and actions that would raise student achievement. At the time, Kentucky was one of the bottom two or three performers among states.

Fast forward 23 years, and we now see Kentucky at or above national average on many measures of student achievement. KERA worked due to the bold vision of the General Assembly and the tremendous work of Kentucky educators.

In 2009, the Kentucky General Assembly again took bold action to reform P-12 education. With the passage of Senate Bill 1, the General Assembly pushed P-12 education toward a higher goal of college- and career-readiness for all students. While KERA had focused on basic academic performance, Senate Bill 1 now focused on college/career-readiness and national/international competitiveness of our Kentucky graduates. Senate Bill 1 has worked as evidenced by increased college/career-readiness rates and graduation rates.

With KERA, there was a significant investment in funds. Programs like Extended School Services, preschool, professional development, teacher salaries, school-based decision making councils, Family and Youth Resource Service Centers, textbooks, and technology received significant dollars through the state budget.

With the passage of Senate Bill 1, there were no additional dollars provided for standards development, assessments, accountability, professional development, textbooks, technology, or student support services. The clear message from the General Assembly was educators had the funding they needed in existing budgets. However, no one dreamed that throughout the next four years the General Assembly would have to greatly reduce funding for public education due to the recession.

Basically, the General Assembly has not been able to honor the commitments made through KERA or Senate Bill 1 due to the recession and lack of economic recovery. How deep have the cuts to education been?

Since the 2008 session of the General Assembly, the per pupil amount has dropped by $33. In FY 2009, the General Assembly provided $2,461,236,248 for basic SEEK funding; the amount in FY 2013 was $2,397,016,693. The General Assembly has allocated $64,219,555 less during a time that our Average Daily Attendance has increased by more than 10,000 students.

KERA provided Flexible Focus Funding for professional development, preschool, textbooks, safe schools, and extended school services. Since the passage of Senate Bill 1 in 2009, funding for professional development has been reduced by more than $9 million, safe schools have been reduced by more than $6 million, extended school services have been reduced by more than $19 million, textbooks have been reduced by more than $21 million, and preschool has been reduced by $3.8 million. In FY 2008, Flex Focus Funds totaled $154,099,600; in FY 2013, it was $93,143,900 -- a total reduction of $60,955,700.

KERA also established a strong focus on technology. In the last four years, we have seen a reduction in excess of $8 million in basic support for the technology infrastructure and the loss of a $50 million bond that helped districts purchase technology equipment.

The impact on education has been significant. In the last three years, we have lost more than 1,800 teachers due to budget cuts.

Local school districts have had to rely on local property taxes to offset some of the state cuts. In FY 2009, local support for education totaled $825,184,656. In 2013, the amount had increased to $872,904,155. This was an increase of $47,719,499 from local sources which rely heavily on property taxes. The net result is that the state is pushing more of the cost of public education on to local property owners. This means that we are seeing a growing gap in equity of funding between school districts. The gap between the school district with the highest funding per pupil and the school district with the lowest funding per pupil in FY 2009 was $8,719. By FY 2013, the disparity had increased to $11,338. This means that the highest funding school district has on average more than $250,000 per classroom to provide a high quality education.

The significant reduction in state funds is only one part of the perfect storm that is brewing. In the spring of 2014, our school districts will have to deal with the budget cuts from federal sequestration – an estimated $57 million in cuts to programs like Title I, special needs students, migrant students, and other at-risk student populations. Estimates of the loss in positions are around 1,300.

Finally, our school districts will see the other part of the perfect storm as they budget for 2014-15. The Kentucky School Board Insurance Trust settlement will happen in the next few months and will place another $50-60 million cost on our districts. Districts will have to borrow money to pay these assessments. To repay the loans, districts will have to take money out of their operating funds that normally would be used to hire staff and provide support services for students.

The perfect storm is certainly brewing in Kentucky education. The only possibility for our school districts is to seek restoration of state funds since we see little hope coming from the federal level of any type of resolution to federal budget and sequestration cuts.

Educators and parents all across Kentucky have come to together to focus on restoration of education funds during the 2014 General Assembly. Failure to see funds restored will result in significant layoffs for the 2014-15 school year. Parents will see the impact in larger class sizes and less support for children who are struggling. Kentucky will see declining graduation rates, higher dropout rates, fewer children reaching college- and career-ready requirements, and negative impacts on social, health, and juvenile justice programs. I hope readers will let their voices be heard.

Key Education Issues for 2013

Over the holiday season I was catching up on my professional reading. Also, I was tracking education writers and their predictions for 2013. I thought it would be good to summarize what I think will be key issues for Kentucky education at the state and national level.

Funding – Funding for education will continue to be on the front burner. At the state level, we see several key issues that will impact funding. The state pension system reform will require significant resources that will eventually have a negative impact on state education funds.

At the national level, the fiscal cliff deal only delayed sequestration decisions for two months. In addition, there will be cuts to federal education funds as Congress has to cut $24 billion due to the two month delay in sequestration.

At the state level, we will see significant discussion over the report by the Blue Ribbon Commission on Tax Reform. My guess is that this issue will be dealt with in a special session. Overall, my prediction on education funding is that we will see continuing reductions in state and federal funds due to the many pressing issues and lack of willingness to increase revenues.

Programs – Early childhood will be one of the top priorities at state and federal levels. Investments in early childhood provide the best return on investment for education dollars. We will also see a state push to raise the dropout age from 16 to 18. A number of other states will also have legislation proposed. This will be a year where Title II issues such as teacher preparation and teacher evaluation gain a lot of momentum and the Secretary of Education will release new guidelines for Title II funding that will support this reform agenda. I have absolutely NO hope to see reauthorization of No Child Left Behind in 2013, however, the state waiver process will inform the debate on reauthorization and lay the groundwork for reauthorization in 2014.

School safety – Everyone agrees that we need to focus on school safety, however, there will not be agreement on specifics. Armed guards have been proposed but funding limitations will hinder that proposal. More focus on gun control laws will be debated and we will see legislation proposed to allow teachers to have concealed permits to carry arms on campus. We will see a lot of debate about reforming mental health. We will also see significant discussions about a culture of violence promoted by media and video games. In the end, I am not certain if much will be accomplished due to the polarization of this issue.

All in all, 2013 does look like a very busy year and a year that I believe will see some significant reform on several fronts. As always, Kentucky educators will be leading on key issues and heavily involved in others.