Work yet to do

Kentucky has made remarkable progress in high school graduation rates and in the percentage of high school graduates who are college ready. High school graduation rates are among the best in the nation at 87.5 percent and our college/career-readiness rates have soared from 30 percent of graduates in 2009 to more than 62 percent in 2014. 

While this is good news, there is much work yet to do.

Despite the improvement in college/career readiness, currently only 60 percent of high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs. In some of our high schools that number is as high as 90 percent while in others it is less than 40 percent. However, back in 2012-13, more than 80 percent of students said they had plans to enroll in postsecondary when they graduated from high school. 

Job number one is to find out why students who indicate an intent do not follow through and enroll in postsecondary. Is it the tuition rates? Is it a lack of support from families? Is it a lack of skills to complete the enrollment process or complete financial aid forms? Is it a lack of college scholarship funding from the Kentucky lottery?

Job number two is to make certain students who move on to postsecondary work are successful. We know that students who graduate from high school having reached the Kentucky college/career-readiness benchmarks realize more success their first year in college than those who are not college ready.
     • They have a higher GPA – 2.6 versus 1.7 for those who are not college
        ready.
     • They complete more college hours – 22 versus 11 for those who are not
        college ready. 
     • They return for a second year of postsecondary at higher rates –
        85 percent versus 65 percent for those who are not college ready.

It is clear that Kentucky’s college/career-ready benchmarks are excellent indicators of success in postsecondary. I know our postsecondary institutions are working hard to build support systems for students who need additional support to reach success in their freshman year.

Job number three is to make certain students who move on to postsecondary are enrolled in career pathways that lead to jobs paying a living wage. Too many of our students who are graduating from postsecondary programs are finding that they have large student debt and very few job prospects in their chosen field of study. In some areas, unemployment of college graduates exceeds 20 percent and underemployment is higher than 40 percent. 

Preparing students to make wise career choices begins in elementary school and continues through postsecondary. We should NEVER put students into programs that lead to a dead end. Our career pathways programs should always provide students with plenty of on ramps and off ramps as they move through the education system.

Job number four is for Kentucky to decide what type of economy we are willing to support. Recently, the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce released an analysis of the workforce pipeline in the Commonwealth. Less than 10 percent of employers think the workforce is prepared with the skills needed for the 21st century economy. Similar reports from the Southern Region Educational Board, Council of Chief State School Officers, National Governor’s Association and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have pointed to similar concerns about the workforce pipeline. While there are plenty of job openings, employers say it difficult to find employees with the skills needed for those openings. We have a huge skills gap in Kentucky and across this nation. 

Kentucky must decide if we are going to invest in an education and workforce system that will prepare our citizens for the 21st century economy. The states that invest in K-12, career pathways, the workforce pipeline and postsecondary today will outcompete other states for jobs in the future. As Kentucky prepares to elect the next governor, these are critical questions to be asking.

Elevating and integrating career and tech ed

In a few weeks, the Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) will release findings from a study of our career and technical education programs. KDE requested the Southern Region Education Board (SREB) study pursuant to recent legislation that merged the former Office of Career and Technical Education within the Education and Workforce Development Cabinet with our local Carl Perkins programs in the Department of Education. It was important for the department to have an independent outside voice make key findings and recommendations on how to elevate and integrate career and technical education in the Commonwealth. Once we report the findings, we will ask the House and Senate Education chairs to provide time either during session or during the interim period to review the findings and recommendation from the report. 

Why do we want to elevate and integrate career and technical education in Kentucky? The simple answer is that we need to do a better job preparing and advising students for the career options that are available in Kentucky and the United States. While some of these jobs will require 4-year degrees, the vast majority of jobs that pay a living wage require 1-year technical or 2-year associate degrees.

A few years ago, I read a book titled “The Coming Jobs War” by Jim Clifton. Mr. Clifton provides projections that globally, more than 3 billion people are looking for jobs that pay a living wage; there are currently only 1.2 billion such jobs. That leaves a gap of 1.8 billion jobs.

U.S. companies are more and more internationally based. They will place their companies where they can find a qualified work force at the lowest cost. Nations who are surpassing the U.S. on international tests like PISA and TIMSS are most certainly focused on increasing the talent pool so they can attract more economic development and more jobs. International test scores do impact the economy.

We have already seen many jobs losses in our country. The loss of U.S. jobs has affected our adult population; however, the biggest impact is in our 18-24 year-old population. Too many of these young people lack the skills required for 21st century jobs. The unemployment rate for the 18-24 year- old group is double that of the general population (15 percent vs. 7.3 percent). When you breakout the data by subgroups, we find that black males, 18-24 years old, have an unemployment rate that exceeds 30 percent. The vast majority of these young people graduated from high school. When you look at high school dropouts, the numbers of unemployed greatly increase.

Why are so many young people unemployed and underemployed? The reasons are clear.

1. More than 50 percent of employers state that these young people do not have the skills for the jobs that are available. There are more than 3.2 million jobs unfilled in the U.S. -- many in manufacturing and health care. These jobs are unfilled because employers cannot find candidates with the skills needed. Many of these jobs require only 1-year technical or 2-year associate degrees. 

2. Our students do not receive adequate career counseling and they make poor career decisions. Too often our students enter career studies where very few jobs exist and pass over career studies that have job openings. Too often we hear stories of students who graduate from a 4-year college and are unable to find a job in their chosen area so they take a low-paying and low-skills job. We also hear the opposite – an employer has numerous openings for jobs that pay a living wage and cannot find applicants who are qualified.

Career and technical education must be elevated and integrated into P-12 education in Kentucky. 
• We must raise it to a level equal to college or academic preparation. 
• We must do a better job of advising students on what jobs are available and then matching them to their career interest through a career pathway. 
• We must integrate career and technical education through new delivery models that integrate CTE and academic requirements in full day programs that do not require lost time in transportation between programs. 
• We must eliminate career and technical programs that are out-of-date and do not have positive job prospects. 
• We must start new career and technical programs based on local and regional industry needs. 
• We must communicate and collaborate with industry to create model programs like our Advance Manufacturing program in Scott County with Toyota. 
• We must update facilities and equipment in our career and technical programs to help prepare students for the high-tech and high-skills jobs. 

As we roll out the findings and recommendations from the Southern Region Education Board, I hope readers will help communicate the importance of career and technical education throughout the Commonwealth. 

Terry Holliday, Ph.D.
Education Commissioner

Summer Reading: Global Competition

Over the past few weeks, I have given several speeches that focus on the 3 E’s. I have been giving this speech for several years. The 3 E’s refer to education driving employment which drives a state and national economy. As part of my speech, I focus on the leadership of Kentucky in pushing the 3 E’s through Senate Bill 1 (2009). For summer reading, I am recommending that educators look closely at several publications. Jim Clifton wrote a book a few years ago entitled The Coming Jobs War. Also, Valerie Hannon and others have written an excellent book called Learning a Living. Finally, I recommend a McKinsey Center for Government report entitled Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works. All three of these publications provide excellent insight into the global competition for jobs and the potential impact on not only the U.S. economy but the global economy.

Jim Clifton offers several interesting statistics. There are 7 billion people on earth. More than 5 billion are age 15 or older. More than 3 billion people say they must work or want to work. Currently there are only 1.2 billion full-time, formal jobs. That means there is a shortfall of 1.8 billion jobs. Readers can see evidence of this with the global unemployment rate of more than 8 percent and the unemployment rates for 18-24 year olds in European countries (more than 25 percent in some countries).  Clifton talks additionally about the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is currently at $60 trillion. The U.S. has one-fourth of the GDP with a national GDP of more than $15 trillion. With projected population and economic growth, the world’s GDP will grow to $140 trillion. This offers enormous opportunities for the nations who seek economic growth. However, a key fundamental for economic growth is education and the creation of jobs. Clifton sums it up very well: “If countries fail at creating jobs, their societies will fall apart.”

In Hannon’s book (Learning a Living), and in the McKinsey report, there are many excellent U.S. and international examples of specific strategies states and nations are implementing to ensure education and job creation. In Kentucky, we have programs like Toyota Advanced Manufacturing and similar initiatives by UPS, Ford and GE.

At a recent global conference I attended, the discussion was lively around an interesting topic: Will this century be the “American” or “Asian” century?  Certainly, the last century was the American century, with tremendous economic leadership from the U.S. However, for the fastest growing economies, we have to look to China, India, and other Asian countries. It is important that the U.S. and Kentucky focus on the 3 E’s in order to remain competitive. I encourage readers to take the summer and read the publications I mentioned. I will return to this theme throughout the fall as Kentucky progresses on our journey to improve the 3 E’s.

Career and Technical Education in Kentucky

On October 16, pursuant to an executive order issued by Governor Steve Beshear, the Office of Career and Technical Education was merged with the Kentucky Department of Education’s (KDE’s) Carl Perkins branch to form the KDE Office of Career and Technical Education (CTE). Associate Commissioner Dale Winkler will head this new office. I am personally very excited about the potential to elevate and integrate career and technical education within the department.

Why is this so important to education and the economy in Kentucky? Here is one example.

Governor Beshear recently proclaimed October 5 as Manufacturing Day in Kentucky. The National Association of Manufacturers, the Manufacturing Institute, Kentucky Association of Manufacturers and the Foundation for Kentucky Industry have designated the day as a launch point to emphasize the many values of manufacturing.

Governor Beshear stated that “manufacturing is a wonderful career path for highly skilled workers within a crucial sector of the economy. The manufacturing community is a key economic driver in the Commonwealth, representing $27 billion, or 17 percent, of Kentucky’s GDP, with more than 215,000 people working in manufacturing in Kentucky.”

This week, I had the opportunity to tour an exciting program that is focused on manufacturing. I visited the Toyota Advanced Manufacturing Technician Program (AMT) at the Toyota Georgetown manufacturing plant. The AMT program has become a national model of how business can collaborate with education to create bright futures for students. In collaboration with numerous school districts in the region, Bluegrass Community and Technical College and other local businesses, students are offered a two-year intensive program that combines the technical, work and academic skills to prepare students for manufacturing jobs.

Of interest to me was the statement that over 600,000 manufacturing job openings are available in the U.S., and industry is having a hard time finding workers with the technical skills and work skills to fill these jobs that pay a living wage. What great news for students in this program and other similar programs across the U.S. It also was exciting to hear that there is significant interest to expand this type of program in Kentucky.

In talking with the students and instructors, I heard several suggestions for the new Office of Career and Technical Education. Among these suggestions was the expansion of our Project Lead the Way program, integration of more rigorous academic skills in career and technical courses, focusing instruction on projects and application of academic and technical skills in an integrated fashion, allowing communities to focus on specific job sector courses rather than one-size-fits-all courses, and heavily involving business and industry in career and technical programs.

Kentucky has focused on elevating and integrating career and technical education. Our Unbridled Learning accountability model gives equal weighting to college and career readiness with bonus points for students who graduate with both. Jobs are available for students who graduate with career and technical skills, as evidenced by the number of job openings in manufacturing.

Over the next few years, I hope our CTE program -- through the integration of academic and career/technical -- will provide numerous opportunities across the state that are similar to the Toyota Advanced Manufacturing Program.

Partnering with the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce on the Three “Es”

This week, Kentucky Chamber of Commerce President Dave Adkisson and I started a 10-city tour to promote education improvement in Kentucky. The theme of our tour is that education drives employment, and employment drives the economy.

The future of Kentucky depends heavily on our ability to improve the educational attainment and outcomes for ALL Kentucky children. My comments for the first stop on the tour – Paducah -- may be found here. These comments focus on two major requests for local Chamber of Commerce members:


1. As the state implements more rigorous standards, we will need business and community leaders to clearly support the need for increased rigor and expectations of college and career readiness for all Kentucky children. There will be push-back that the standards are too rigorous and the assessments are too rigorous for Kentucky children and teachers. We must stand united in our expectations.


2. Schools alone cannot accomplish college and career readiness for all Kentucky children. Business and community leader involvement is specifically requested for Operation Preparation. This program is set for March 12-16, 201,2 and every 8th- and 10th-grade Kentucky student will meet with an adult volunteer who will advise the student on preparation for college and career. The Kentucky Department of Education will provide training and resources for volunteers. Since there are almost 50,000 8th graders and over 45,000 10th graders, we will need many adult volunteers.



My thanks to Dave Adkisson and the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce for their support of education. Education is the number-one item on the chamber’s legislative agenda and its strategic plan.

In our visits, we will also talk to local editorial boards and media outlets, and we hope to see extensive coverage of the college- and career-ready expectations and Operation Preparation.

Impact of Poverty on Student Learning

Recently, I reviewed a story about poverty and the impact on education outcomes in Texas. Michael Marder, who is a professor of physics at the University of Texas at Austin, also is co-director of the UTeach program that encourages university grads to become math and science teachers.

In the article, Marder discusses his research around student learning outcomes and the correlations with poverty and ethnicity. Interested readers can connect to an excellent video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SPV_sIGncvQ.

Marder’s research shows the strong correlation of poverty to low student achievement and also shows how schools are failing to educate many children of color. Marder clearly states that we have not been able to take a solution to the poverty challenge to scale. He also points out that, while there are a few charter schools that are “beating the odds,” most charter schools in Texas are not achieving strong results.

Marder used the “Boeing” story to illustrate his key point. After World War II, the British tried to regain transportation supremacy through air travel with the de Havilland aircraft. After numerous crashes, the British were unable to develop a theory that would improve the aircraft; however, a young engineer with Boeing came up with a new way of thinking that allowed Boeing and the U.S. to take supremacy in air travel. The British theory had been “flaw free” and had failed. The Boeing theory was a “flaw tolerant” design of aircraft, and it succeeded.

Marder makes the point that “poverty is causing our public school system to crash and burn and fail many children.” He says that if we do not figure out how to address poverty, then we will lose our technical supremacy – as many reports have also documented (Gathering Storm, Incarceration and Social Inequity, a Center for American Progress report and more). Marder says that our current theory of only addressing teacher quality and accountability through standardized tests has not been proven to address failures on a sustained basis. He says we need a new “Boeing” theory.

During my recent visit to China, it was apparent the country is struggling with the same issues – poverty in rural and urban settings, poor performance of schools and failure of schools/society to meet the needs of a diverse group of children. The Chinese have developed five- and 10-year plans that have strategies of strong schools helping weaker schools and strong leaders and teachers helping weaker leaders and teachers. Also, there is a strong push to meet needs of individual learners and use higher level skills of problem solving, creativity and innovation.

Looking at our current national and state reform strategies, I do believe that we also are addressing a systemic approach to improving student learning outcomes. We are not focusing solely on standardized test results and accountability. We have a strong push for a more balanced approach to accountability, strong teachers and leaders, strong instructional support systems, and early childhood.

Marder has posed the concern about our public policy theories of action. The key for policy leaders is to not use poverty as the excuse, but to look for the “Boeing” theory of action that will meet the needs of our children and the future of our Commonwealth.

There are two issues that arise when we discuss poverty and impact on student learning. Either we do not believe children of poverty can learn to high levels, or we do not know how to help children of poverty achieve at high levels. It is difficult to say that we do not know how; however, that response can be addressed. If we do not believe that children of poverty can learn at high levels as well as any child, then we have a more difficult issue.

Sense of Urgency

While I believe Kentucky has made significant progress in education and the economy over the last 20 years, there is much work to do. As I travel across the Commonwealth, I feel that there is not a strong enough sense of urgency about the need to improve our economy and education. See if the following factoids catch your attention.

• Thirty years ago, ten percent of California’s general fund went to higher education and three percent to prisons. Today, nearly eleven percent goes to prisons and eight percent to higher education.
• The United States now ranks 22nd among the world’s nations in the density of broadband Internet penetration and 72nd in the density of mobile telephony subscriptions.
  The World Economic Forum ranks the United States 48th in quality of mathematics and science education.
• Federal funding of research in the physical sciences as a fraction of gross domestic product fell by 54 percent in the 25 years after 1970. The decline in engineering funding was 51 percent.
• In the 2009 rankings of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, the U.S. was in sixth place in global innovation-based competitiveness, but ranked 40th in the rate of change over the past decade.

These factoids come from a recent report, Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited: Rapidly Approaching Category 5. This report is published by the National Academies Press and is available for download here. Check out the brief summary below. This is an essential read for policy makers and interested parents.

The original Gathering Storm competitiveness report focuses on the ability of America and Americans to compete for jobs in the evolving global economy. The possession of quality jobs is the foundation of a high quality life for the nation’s citizenry. The report paints a daunting outlook for America if it were to continue on the perilous path it has been following in recent decades with regard to sustained competitiveness.

The purpose of the present report is to assess changes in America’s competitive posture in the five years that have elapsed since the Gathering Storm report was initially published and to assess the status of implementation of the National Academies’ recommendations.

In the face of so many daunting near-term challenges, U.S. government and industry are letting the crucial strategic issues of U.S. competitiveness slip below the surface. Five years ago, the National Academies prepared Rising Above the Gathering Storm, a book that cautioned: "Without a renewed effort to bolster the foundations of our competitiveness, we can expect to lose our privileged position." Since that time, we find ourselves in a country where much has changed--and a great deal has not changed.

Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited is a wake-up call. To reverse the foreboding outlook will require a sustained commitment by both individual citizens and government officials--at all levels. This book, together with the original Gathering Storm volume, provides the roadmap to meet that goal. While this book is essential for policy makers, anyone concerned with the future of innovation, competitiveness, and the standard of living in the United States will find this book an ideal tool for engaging their government representatives, peers, and community about this momentous issue.

An Interesting, Interconnected Week

This week was a very interesting week. Governor Beshear dropped in to visit with the Transforming Education in Kentucky (TEK) task force. His message was very clear and visionary. He recharged the task force with developing recommendations that will refocus our efforts in Kentucky to help prepare more children for the challenges they will face.

This charge is clear. ALL students must be prepared for college and career through a more challenging and rigorous education. After his message, the task force heard from our career and technical education (CTE) staff about the excellent work going on in this program. The message was clear that the current CTE program is not your father’s shop class anymore. The program integrates academics and technical skills to prepare students for jobs of the 21st century.

Gene Bottoms of the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) delivered an excellent presentation on how to ensure more students graduate from high school with college- and career-ready skills. His presentation also included several excellent policy recommendations that the task force will certainly be reviewing for possible inclusion in the final report.

Also, this week, First Lady Jane Beshear was honored by the SREB for her leadership with the Graduate Kentucky Project. And, I had the honor to present at the Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit. All of these events are very much related.

I have begun to focus on the “Three Es.” Education, employment and the economy are tightly linked, and all of the events this week showed that linkage very clearly. A report I received in an e-mail from the Alliance for Excellent Education pulled it all together. Excerpts from the report are below, and I encourage readers to review the information for the nation and for our largest urban system – Louisville/Jefferson County.

Excerpts from the article:

In the nation's forty-five largest metropolitan areas, students of color made up a sizable portion of the estimated 600,000 students who dropped out from the Class of 2008: 113,600 African American, 200,000 Latino, 3,750 American Indian, and 30,800 Asian American1 students are estimated to have dropped out from this class.

Cutting the number of these dropouts in half would likely produce vast economic benefits by boosting the spending power of these communities of color and spurring job and economic growth in these regions. Below, see the likely contributions that these “new graduates” would make to their regional economies.
· All told, the students of color within this one class of new graduates could produce enormous benefits for their local economies:
· Together, their additional spending would likely generate 17,450 new jobs and boost the gross regional products of these areas by as much as $3.1 billion by the time they reach the midpoint of their careers.
· As a result of their increased wages and higher levels of spending, state and local tax revenues within these regions would likely grow by as much as $249.7 million during an average year.
· The regions would likely see increased human capital, with 48 percent of these new graduates likely continuing on to pursue some type of postsecondary education after earning a high school diploma.

To view the full report, visit http://all4ed.org/publication_material/EconMSAsoc.

Success in High School (and After) Starts in Preschool

It was my pleasure to attend the Interim Joint Committee on Education meeting this week. University of Maryland Chancellor William “Brit” Kirwan, Ph.D., presented excerpts from the Maryland report Access, Admissions and Success in Higher Education. Kirwan is a Kentucky native and son of A.D. Kirwan, former president of the University of Kentucky.

The presentation began with some startling facts. In the 1960s, the U.S. led the world in percentage of students who graduated from high school and in the percentage of 24- to 32-year-olds with postsecondary degrees (two-year and four-year). Today, we rank 28th among industrialized nations in high school graduation and 10th in postsecondary degrees.

President Barack Obama has set a goal that the U.S. should once again lead the world in postsecondary degrees by 2020. While the U.S. has slightly increased the percentages in both areas, the rest of the world has caught us and passed us. The presentation provided several recommendations that have implications for Kentucky, and I hope that readers will join me in working with our legislators to implement the recommendations.

The number one recommendation is to increase the percentage of children who receive preschool education. This is crucial for success. Children come to school with the achievement gap already existing due to vocabulary development. The Kentucky Board of Education and many other organizations are calling for preschool for children from families up to 200 percent of the poverty level.

Another recommendation deals with the increase in counseling services at the middle school level. Any analysis of learning results in Kentucky reveals that we are losing ground in late elementary and middle school. The result is high school dropouts and low test scores at the high school level. We must address literacy issues at the secondary level in Kentucky and raise expectations of students and parents so that all children will at least have the opportunity to meet college preparedness levels.

A number of the recommendations aligned very well with Senate Bill 1. Kentucky and Texas are leading the nation with legislation to ensure more children are prepared for college and career. Our legislation matches the recommendations of alignment of standards between P-12 and college and improving teacher effectiveness through professional development.

More and more, we are realizing the economic impact of preparing all children for postsecondary success. While economics certainly get our attention, we can never forget that education is a social, moral and civil rights issue. We owe our children the best efforts we can make to provide the opportunities for them to be successful.

I am excited about the work we have in front of us and know that Kentucky students, educators, parents, and citizens will rise to the challenge.